Saturday , July 31 2021

Dollar against the floor, the local IMF and bonus for the ANSeS – 02/12/2018

Tomorrow the agreement the Government and the Monetary Fund so that the Central Bank can reduce the interest rate by 60% per year.

The border was established according to whether there were two consecutive months in which the Merchandise Surveys Survey (REM), which arises from the average of the estimates of the consultants, indicates a reduction in the annual inflation-prognosis. Will it be done?

The consultant Eco Go who goes Marina Dal Poggetto project growth cost of living 2.9% over the past month (October was 5.4%) and 48% for the year and, he added, the highest since 1991.

In the same report, he puts himself on the potential effects of such high figures on an economics with a high degree of indexing and on which, as official announcements, are still 50% increase in the water rate and 60% on the gas for the next year.

The counterweight of this "ball" inflation is deposited in the quietness of the dollarsaid last week revalidated its titles by the end of Thursday at $ 37.72, with a decrease of 2% compared to the previous day and 3.5% compared with the highlighted Monday, which generated some concern in the market.

The weekly balance was that Guido Sandleris, head of the Central, ratified that its objective is to dry the heavy market to contain any unavailable in the exchange market although, and in this there is a coincidence in the world of commerce, the prices have already incorporated $ 40 dollars This is immoral to give positions even when the sale has fallen sharply last month. And the worst ends?

An important response was given Christine Lagarde, which predicted that the economic situation "It will be difficult for the next three or four months and then there will be a change."

The vision of the owner of the Monetary Fund corresponds to the economists on the other hand "optimism" They bet that in April or May the country will start from the recession. Is it so?

This optimistic vision, which is the one of the Government, rests on the entry of the dollars of the Exports of wheat, corn and soybean And in that, despite the global decline in oil, Vaca Muerta can give very good news about gas exports.

The rest will depend on the parish and that Sandleris can accelerate the reduction of interest rates in February. Of course, therefore, and the Ministry of Economy ratified it with firmness, Nicolás Dujovne, within the framework of the G20 meetings, "First, the inflation must lower and then the tariffs will fall."

But in the middle we need to closely follow the development of depots in pesos in banks, which in the past two months they grew 20% and they have become an indispensable comparison to the tranquility of the dollar.

The fixed terms have grown strongly due to the fact that the banks paid the rescuers Tariffs between 45% and 53% and now receives the Central Bank by 61% a year to put the weights in Liquidity Letters (Leliq). In this context, it is expected that the rate of low rates will be very moderate.

Finally, it was clear signal about how the government plans to face theof the debt intra-public sector which can mislead the vision from market operators who are betting that 2020 Argentina can not fulfill the commitment of the debt.

The case is the end of Bon 2018 that the ANSeS had for US $ 3,500 million and that he will win. What did the Government do? What is usually done with the debts that public agencies have with the Treasure: they are refinancing.

Issued two bonuses, one in dollars for US $ 2,300 million at 8% year by year to 2020 and another in pesos equivalent to $ 1,200 million until 2022, which is updated for inflation.

The issue is important because, according to the latest official statistics, the debt between public agencies and, therefore, renegocably represents almost 42% of US $ 327,167 million, which the dirty public debt reached June. Signal to consider in the cloud of difficult news on economic activity.

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