In its report on the global economic outlook, which was presented yesterday in Dubai, Algeria's nominal GDP should reach $ 200 billion in 2019. The Bretton Woods Institution also expects a slight rise in GDP In 2018 compared to 2017. This is expected to reach $ 188.3 billion in 2018, compared to $ 167.6 billion in 2017, an increase supported by the increase in public spending that should increase growth next year. Real rate unchanged at 2.5% in 2018, compared with 1.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2019, noting that "the increase in public expenditure should stimulate growth. This year.
But "the expected fiscal contraction in the next few years could cause a slowdown in oil growth not in the medium term," says the lender of last resort. The IMF notes that Algeria "increased its spending to stimulate economic activity, relying heavily on monetary funding," and stressed that "the return to strict fiscal balance is expected from 2019." "The monetization of Algeria's budget deficit has led to significant liquidity injections that increased credit to the private sector as well as the public sector in 2017."
In this context, the IMF notes that the ratio between private investment and GDP in the oil-exporting countries in the region was brought by Algeria, with the average ratio increasing from 14% to 22%. The IMF report discussed progress in improving the business climate, including the adoption of new laws to support small and medium-sized enterprises, but the country's monetary financing was not translated into a wave of inflation The International Monetary Fund kept its October inflation forecast at 6.5% 2018 and 6.7% in 2019. The rates are lower than the April forecast, and other countries exporting oil in the region are expected to register an improvement in their external and budgetary balances, mainly due to the recovery in crude oil prices.
The recovery in oil prices "will provide temporary support" to the oil-exporting countries in the region, which must, however, continue fiscal adjustment reforms to strengthen their long-term durability, the IMF says in its report, so exports will increase to $ 46.2 billion in 2018 Compared with $ 37.6 billion in 2017. The deficit in the current account will be $ 16.9 billion this year, compared to $ 22.1 billion in 2017. The deficit will fall from $ 1 billion to $ 15.9 billion in 2019. The current account deficit represented about 9 percent of GDP in 2018, -13.2% in 2017 and is expected to fall to 7.9% of GDP in 2019, according to the same data.
The International Monetary Fund expects Algeria's budget to be in equilibrium with a barrel of $ 105.1 in 2018 and $ 98.6 in 2019. But for its external balance it will have to barrel much cheaper to $ 80.3 in 2018 and $ 78.9 in 2019, according to IMF estimates.