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Palo Alto – The global diabetes epidemic increases the demand for insulin. The need for calculations Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology (2018; doi: 10.1016 / S2213-8587 (18) 30303-6) will increase by 20% by 2030.
All people with type 1 diabetes need to inject insulin if they want to survive. People with type 2 diabetes initially treat other medications. In advanced illness, however, the insulin is often the only agent with satisfying long-term blood glucose (HbA1c) can be achieved.
Insulin was the first genetically educated drug 40 years ago. It can then be theoretically produced in unlimited quantities. Prices are relatively high. There are only 3 manufacturers worldwide (Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Eli Lilly). Therefore, in poorer countries many patients can not afford treatment.
At present, the shortage is most pronounced in Africa. In order to deal with all patients who need insulin, the production should be increased by a factor of 7, according to a team led by Stanford University's Sanjay Basu in Palo Alto, California: instead of the current 718,000 balls, by 2030, about 5.1 million needed.
In Asia also, the demand will rise sharply by 2030. Basically expect an increase of 26.5 million balls per year.
Currently, there are 406 million people with type 2 diabetes worldwide, compared to 511 million by 2030. More than half of them live in 3 countries: China (130 million), India (98) million and the United States (32 million).
It is estimated that worldwide annual insulin conditions will increase by 20% of 526 million railways in 2018 to 634 million in 2030.
The need depends on which HbA is1cObjects are searched. By today's standards, 7.4% of all types 2 diabetes are treated with insulin. In (diabetologically significant, but challenging) HbA1cTarget of 7.0% will demand 15.5% of all people with Type 2 diabetes insulin.
HbA1cThe value of 7% today is only achieved by some people with type 2 diabetes. However, according to additional calculations of Basque, he could avoid the loss of many sick years of life (DALY). Currently, 262,884 DALY is lost because diabetes do not reach the target levels. By 2030, it could be 331,101 if an insulin was not available in sufficient amounts and at reasonable prices. © heat / aerzteblatt.de