On Thursday, the United States Energy Information Management (EIA) has published its 2019 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), which contains projections of energy trends, from the amount of fossil fuels produced and sold, to the renewable energy growth until 2050.
This year, against the background of recent warnings from top scientists on the urgency of climate action, the EIA projections do not look great. Karbo, one of the most carbon-emitting sources of energy, is still projected to supply 17% of the US electricity in 2050, and it is assumed that no carbon dioxide technology has become mandatory. Natural gas-fossil fuel, which is less carbonate than carbon but still a problem for climate change – will increase its share of American electricity production from 34% to 39 percent.
These projections are a "reference case" of the EIA, which omits some predictions of non-programmed political changes. But they have assumptions about how technology will change and the economy will grow. In the words of the EIA (PDF), "The AEO2019 Reference case represents the best assessment of the EIA on how the US and global energy markets will work in 2050, based on many key assumptions. For example, the Project case projection is an improvement in well-known energy production, transmission and consumption of technological tendencies. "
As such, the projections give us a vision in a world where we reach the present statue in the future.
It needs an acne of salt
The EIA emphasizes that its predictions are not a gospel and can not all thought-in history rarely follow a straight way, and that makes projections of the future necessarily considered.
But critics of the Annual Energy Outlook of the EIA say that its reference case (and even the six "side effects" that it draws on in its report) favors fossil fuels. (The six side cases are high and low prices of petroleum, high and low gas production, and economic growth of high and low US.
In addition, 2016 paper in the magazine Energy found that the "AEO constantly sub-projects most types of non-hydrogen renewables". The EIA has tried to address this criticism (PDF) after this paper has gone out, but doubts the duration of the EIA methodology for renewable energy. For example, the EIA this year It does not seem to model a foreign wind At any point in the future, although several Atlantic states have contracts for considerable facilities.
Critics say that oversight of the future of fossil fuels is not a disputing semantic argument; These projections are read and used by investors, researchers and useful administrators. Methodology that favors fossil fuels can perpetuate more fossil fuels. This could lead to a world where our carbon emissions or are never subject to the control or sharpened assets of political changes create problems for the US economy.
On the wrong way
If nothing else, the EIA projection case should be a call-call that should be done to demolish the US energy sector.
The reference case considers an existing climate-related policy (therefore, the 100% clean energy of California according to 2045 rule reflects, for example) and, as such, renewable projects increase by 18 percent of American electricity production up to 31 percent by 2050. But a world where renewable energy constitutes only one-third of the US's electric mixture and nuclear power decreases by 19 percent of the mix up to 12 percent of the mix would be well outside the necessary to reach Paris Consider objectives.
In fact, the EIA does not think that carbon emissions emissions from the energy sector will decrease by any significant amount, according to Utility Dive. The news industry noticed that, unlike previous years, the 2019 AEO did not include tax assessment for carbon emissions from US energy sectors for the reporting case until 2050.
Instead, an agency official provided Utility Dive with a sheet of stone, specifying calculated carbonets for the reference case. The carbon sheet shows that carbon emissions will only fall by 2.5% from 2017 levels by 2050. While carbon emissions of carbon plants are dropped, carbon gas emissions actually increase over the next 30 years.
Unfortunately, this projection does not seem crazy, considering what took place in 2018. Despite all coal interruptions that occurred in 2018, the European energy sectors increased 1.9 percent due to natural gas buildings, according to a preliminary Ratio Group.
The case of reference of the EIA is probably a pessimistic point of view of the future, but it is a future that will be well within our reach, if climate warnings will not take seriously from the energy industry and politicians.